Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Decline of the Goal Scoring
A key narrative of the EPL this campaign concerns the decline of goals scored in open-play scenarios and the way sides have been scoring more from dead-ball situations instead.
Looking at scoring methods to the first 11 games the prior season, we see 39 fewer scored in open-play and 26 more from set-plays and penalties, giving us 13 fewer altogether.
Examining the bigger picture, shot attempts teams are taking have seen a staggering drop of 370 in open play than this time previously.
And despite the notable jump in set-play finishes, records show only two additional shots created from them excluding penalties, showing how effective teams are at devising strategies to net from set-pieces.
Goal Averages Tell the Tale
301 total goals scored in 110 games so far averages out at 2.74 scores per fixture, which if it continued for all 38 games might be the lowest for half a decade, since 2020-21 (2.69).
Yet merely under 200 goals coming in open play translates to 1.78 per fixture and is on course to be the least for since 2009-10, back in 2009-10 (1.76 per game).
2009-10 is also the sole English top-flight season to witness scoring at a higher rate from non-penalty set-pieces than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 each match (0.79).
What Clubs Are Most Responsible?
In terms of scoring from open-play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have experienced the largest decrease, scoring just four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 fewer than this point the previous campaign.
Apart from Wolverhampton, England's top division's drop in open-play scoring is largely a London phenomenon, with half of the city's seven teams netting five or more fewer goals from open play than last season.
In fairness, this is primarily due to them scoring numerous scores at the early stages of last season as opposed to them really struggling to score in open play this campaign.
Conversely Manchester City have recorded the largest rise, with almost every one of their 23 goals to date originating in open play.
Set-Piece Success
Comparing the promoted teams with the teams that went down they took the place of. Play-off winners Sunderland have recorded an additional three goals in open-play than Southampton managed in their first 11 games en route to relegation the previous campaign.
In terms of goals scored from dead-ball situations (excluding penalties), Arsenal and the Blues have experienced the biggest increase, with each team making up for the five fewer scores that they've netted in open play with identical figures from dead-ball chances.
Man United have netted twice as many goals from set-plays as they did in the 11 games the previous campaign prior to Ruben Amorim took over, while Sunderland once more prove better at converting than the club they replaced they superseded.
Man City don't seem to have got the message about increasing scoring from set-pieces, as they've scored three fewer than the previous campaign, like Forest, even if that might be down to the altered approach they've attempted to adopt.
General Tendencies
Six clubs – the Gunners, the Blues, Fulham, Newcastle, Spurs and the Hammers – are this season's top trend-setters by scoring fewer goals from open play and more from set-pieces, while Man City stand as the unique club to go against the grain up to now by achieving the contrary.
It will be fascinating to watch if sides continue to depend greatly on set-pieces as matches continue or if they rediscover their all-round creativity and begin scoring increased totals in open-play as well.
