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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the award. However, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

However the current competition is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and recent also-rans ascending in unison. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still