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Amid the widespread uncertainty following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the recent overnight operation marked its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and seize its president – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to focus on domestic issues once more – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may live to repent if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.