Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.