Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
