From Grudging Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A surprise raid against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”