Everyday Homicides in the nation Fall 37% Under Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Government Data

The typical number of everyday murders monthly in the country has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by new official figures. However, public safety experts have advised that murder numbers could fail to point to improved countrywide stability.

Notable Decline in Daily Figures

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 killings a day in November as opposed to almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September. This information was shared by the director of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we’ve had in these past months is extremely important,” the President said, explaining that the previous month the lowest figure of murders were documented for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Fierce organized crime internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s highly military efforts to confront the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent times. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate more than 4x greater than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security strategy for an ostensibly sharper reduction in killings this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the President stated: “We have a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach functions. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The key elements of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation work.
• Increased coordination between various agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

But, security experts urged caution that focusing solely on murder data to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is notably true in light of the uptick in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“It would be positive information if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder data and say: ‘Well then, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same period the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not valid for assessing the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the ability or the desire to correctly identify and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was additionally an issue because it might mask days when there were notably spiking levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily average renders surges of violent crime unseen,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, per government data. More than 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

Yet notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico remains grappling with extreme violence, with several states in the throes of cartel-fueled violence. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and across the nation to show their outrage at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a way to create a narrative of safety. Politically it’s very potent, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” the analyst remarked.